How to Implement a Hurdle Model for Trade Prediction
- Problem: Predicting trade flows with many zero values
- Solution: Implement a two-stage hurdle model that:
- First predicts whether trade exists between two regions
- Then estimates the volume of trade when it exists
- Code example: See the GAT model implementation in
code/model.py
How to Incorporate Geographic and Economic Features
- Problem: Capturing complex relationships in trade networks
- Solution: Combine multiple feature types:
- County-level economic indicators (population, employment_rate, median_income)
- Geographic distance and transportation modes
- Industry diversity metrics